Industry Odisha Bureau, Aug 29: India’s southwest monsoon remained 13% below normal as of August 27 this year. Yet kharif sowing has already recovered to within 1.5% of last year’s level. September, the monsoon’s final month, will now decide whether that resilience truly holds. The stakes extend well beyond crops, reaching reservoirs, rabi prospects and food inflation.
Last year rainfall stood 5% above normal at this same point. The IMD had forecast a weak monsoon, near 90% of the long-period average, citing developing El Nino conditions. Rainfall improved sharply in July, narrowing June’s roughly 40% deficit. That recovery has since stalled, leaving August’s shortfall largely unchanged.
The national figure hides sharp regional and state-level contrasts. North-western India faces a 10% deficit, while the central belt is down just 2%. Southern and eastern India have fared worse, running deficits of 22% and 27%. Odisha holds a 27% surplus, while Bihar, Punjab and Andhra Pradesh face deficits of 42%, 34% and 40%. Bihar has now posted deficient rainfall for five consecutive years, UBI’s research notes, deepening its farm vulnerability.
Sowing itself tells a more encouraging story than rainfall alone suggests. Kharif acreage reached 105.7 million hectares as of August 21, recovering from a 23% shortfall in early July. Pulses, cotton and oilseeds are gaining acreage, while rice, coarse cereals and sugar acreage keeps shrinking. Sown area, though, is not the same as eventual harvested output.
Reservoirs offer a partial cushion heading toward the rabi season ahead. The 176 reservoirs tracked by the Central Water Commission held 64% of live capacity by August 20, up from 44% at July-end but still below last year’s 78%. Eastern and western reservoirs have topped last year’s levels, while northern storage lags at just 57% of capacity.
UBI has maintained its FY27 CPI forecast at 5% despite the rainfall shortfall so far. A confirmed El Nino, the bank warns, could push that inflation forecast toward 5.5% or higher. Rainfall deficits typically affect food prices with a lag, UBI’s economists note, meaning consequences may surface well after harvest. Alongside the monsoon, Federal Reserve decisions and crude oil prices will shape the RBI’s coming policy calculus, with a rate hike returning into view for December or February should El Nino conditions strengthen further.
With September now the monsoon’s last stretch, its rainfall will test whether sowing resilience becomes a stable harvest. Soil moisture, reservoir levels and rabi preparedness all hinge on these coming weeks. So does the eventual scale of food-price pressure feeding into RBI policy.
