Industry Odisha Bureau, Sep 10: The monsoon is entering its withdrawal phase, but a new weather system is defying the seasonal slowdown.
A cyclonic circulation formed over the north Bay of Bengal and neighbouring Bangladesh on Wednesday. The India Meteorological Department expects it to consolidate into a full low pressure area by Thursday.
Monsoon withdrawal typically begins around September 17 in North West India. This system, however, could deliver one last strong pulse of rain before that happens.
South India’s Rain Deficit
The South Peninsula has suffered the most this monsoon season. El Niño driven sinking air and persistent high pressure have blocked rainfall across the region.
The result: a steep 27 per cent seasonal rainfall deficit, the worst among India’s four meteorological zones. East and North East India trail close behind, at 25 per cent below normal. Central and North West India have fared better, with single-digit shortfalls.
An Unusual South West Track
Most Bay of Bengal systems move north west. This one is expected to break that pattern. Forecasters expect the system to first move south west along the coast. It could cross land near the Odisha north Andhra Pradesh border by Saturday.
If the system holds strength, its reach could extend deep into the South Peninsula and Madhya Pradesh. It may later regain intensity near Mumbai’s Konkan coast, before curving towards Uttar Pradesh and the Himalayan foothills.
Why This Matters for Farmers
El Niño typically weakens the monsoon overall, but it rarely stops rain completely. Instead, rainfall becomes patchy and unpredictable.
Long dry spells now tend to break with sudden, intense bursts. Much depends on whether lows and troughs align favourably, as this one appears to.
For the South, even a short spell of good rain could ease pressure on reservoirs and standing crops.
Where Heavy Rain Is Expected
This weekend (South India):
•Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal: heavy rain likely Saturday
•Kerala and Mahe: heavy rain over the next three days
•Telangana: heavy rain expected Friday and Saturday
•Scattered showers likely across Coastal and South Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, and Coastal Andhra Pradesh
East India faces sharper impact:
•Odisha: isolated extremely heavy rain warned for Thursday
•Odisha: very heavy rain likely Friday
•Heavy spells expected in West Bengal, Jharkhand, and Bihar
•Andaman and Nicobar Islands, West Bengal hills, and Sikkim also on alert
