Industry Odisha Bureau, Aug 26: India’s economic growth likely slowed sharply in the April-June quarter. A (Source:-Mint poll) of 21 economists projects 7.4% GDP growth. This would mark the slowest expansion in four consecutive quarters. The West Asia war and higher inflation weighed on activity. Yet domestic demand proved surprisingly resilient during disruptions.
Economists forecast growth between 6.8% and 8.0% for Q1. All but one predicted slower growth than the previous quarter. The official GDP estimate arrives on August 31. Economist projections exceed the Reserve Bank’s latest 7.0% estimate. This suggests underlying economic resilience despite external headwinds.
Industrial output remained solid but moderated from the previous year. Services provided continued support to overall economic expansion. Agricultural activity likely weakened because of monsoon delays. The sector faces particular vulnerability to weather-driven disruptions.
A higher GDP deflator reduced the real growth calculation. The deflator removes inflation from nominal GDP to measure real expansion. Retail inflation averaged 3.93% during April-June quarter. This compared with 2.89% a year earlier. Wholesale inflation surged to 9.37% from negligible levels previously.
Price increases affect how economists calculate real economic growth. Higher deflators reduce measured real expansion for statistical reasons. This reflects economic methodology rather than actual activity weakness.
Domestic demand remained the growth story’s bright spot. External shocks did not fully transmit to consumers. Businesses and households continued spending despite uncertainty. This cushioned the impact of geopolitical disruptions.
The Reserve Bank projects slowing momentum ahead. Q2 growth may fall to 6.4%. Q3 could reach 6.5%. Q4 is estimated at 6.8%. The full-year FY27 average projects at 6.7%.
Economists broadly expect annual growth near 7%. A better-than-expected Q1 could support upward revisions. However, energy-price uncertainties and supply-chain pressures loom. Trade-policy risks could also affect subsequent quarters.
Growth moderation appears manageable within the RBI’s framework. India’s economy continues expanding despite rising external uncertainties. Domestic consumption provides a stabilizing foundation for activity. The challenge lies in sustaining momentum through Q2 and Q3.
