Industry Odisha Bureau, Aug 4: India is likely to witness an active phase of the Southwest monsoon over the next two weeks. During this period, the weather conditions over the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal become increasingly favourable for widespread rainfall. This comes despite the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remaining in a neutral phase.
Climate scientists say the IOD has not yet developed into the positive phase that typically strengthens India’s monsoon. Currently, atmospheric conditions over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean are being influenced by three factors. These being the tropical westerly winds, typhoons in the western Pacific and the growing effects of El Niño. The characteristic southeasterly trade winds associated with a positive IOD are yet to emerge.
Strong thunderstorm activity over the eastern Indian Ocean, however, indicates that the atmosphere remains highly active. Scientists note that the relatively smaller size of the Indian Ocean allows weather patterns to change quickly. If El Niño intensifies further in the coming weeks, it could trigger a positive IOD. Notably, this often helps offset some of El Niño’s negative impact on India’s monsoon.
Another important development is the gradual cooling of sea surface temperatures around Indonesia and Java due to seasonal upwelling. This is a process in which colder water rises from deeper layers of the ocean. Changes in rainfall over Indonesia are closely linked to this cooling and can influence weather patterns across the Indo-Pacific region.
Meanwhile, conditions over India have become increasingly favourable for rainfall. Short lived rain bearing systems are becoming more active across northern and eastern India. This is while the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is moving into a phase that supports cloud formation over the southern Bay of Bengal.
Meteorologists suggest that these combined oceanic and atmospheric factors will keep the monsoon active for the next 2 weeks. While the IOD remains neutral for now, scientists will closely monitor its growth, as it could play a crucial role in shaping rainfall during the remainder of the 2026 monsoon season.
