Industry Odisha Bureau, Oct 20: India’s recent history shows the Ukraine war redirected its petroleum trade towards Russian crude. Now the West Asia war is testing its energy security once more.
India imports roughly 80% of its petroleum needs, mostly crude oil and other hydrocarbons. Yet it is also a large exporter of refined petroleum products. That dual role leaves India’s petroleum trade exposed to geopolitical shocks. A recent history by Roshan Kishore in Hindustan Times maps those disruptions.
Before 2022, Russia barely featured in India’s oil imports. The two countries shared deep ties, especially in defence purchases. But geography outweighed diplomacy in energy. India relied heavily on West Asian producers, which lie much closer than Russia. Shorter shipping routes meant lower costs and established commercial links.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 changed that calculation. European buyers turned away from Russian energy. Russian crude needed new destinations, and India and China stepped in. Russia’s share of India’s petroleum imports rose sharply from a marginal base. The Biden administration accepted this commercial adjustment by India, the analysis notes.
The war rearranged trade routes more than it shrank global supply. Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) data show overall crude exports barely changed. Instead, buyers and sellers swapped partners. Europe diversified away from Russia, while Asian refiners absorbed more Russian barrels.
India’s refineries played a notable part in this reshuffle. Its refined petroleum exports to Europe rose above pre-war levels. Indian refiners process imported crude into fuels such as diesel for global markets. Kishore argues some fuel sold to Europe likely came from Russian crude. The analysis does not trace individual cargoes.
Prices also told a story of shock followed by adjustment. Brent is the global crude price benchmark. Brent spot prices crossed $100 a barrel between March and August 2022. By December that year, they had returned to pre-war levels. Between December 2022 and February 2026, prices stayed largely subdued. Monthly average spot prices stayed below $90 in 37 of 39 months. Front-month futures, for delivery in the nearest month, did so in 38.
The West Asia war has since disrupted that calm. According to the analysis, the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February 2026. Iran then shut maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The narrow channel is a key route for Gulf oil shipments. Brent crossed $100 again in March. It eased after a US–Iran ceasefire in June but rose when hostilities resumed.
Washington’s stance on Russian oil has also hardened. The Trump administration has proposed a 100% tariff on countries importing Russian oil. It has, however, announced a 60-day waiver on implementing the measure. The tariff therefore remains a threat rather than an enforced penalty.
For India, the stakes are high. Disruption near Hormuz threatens supplies from its traditional West Asian sources. Higher prices could raise import bills, shipping and insurance costs, and inflation. Pressure on Russian purchases would narrow its alternatives further. India’s petroleum trade has adapted before, but each shock tests its options anew.
