Industry Odisha Bureau, May 16: The India Meteorological Department (IMD)’s latest forecast on the onset of south-west monsoon has reportedly predicted that it is likely to hit Kerala on May 26 this year, but the annual monsoon this year would have below-normal rainfall due to the El Nino impact.
Normally, the onset of monsson in India is signalled when it hits Kerala by the first week of June and gradually covers the whole country within a fortnight span. Last year (2025), it had reportedly hit Kerala on May 24, while this year it is likely to arrive at Kerala on May 26.
The IMD’s latest bulletin has reportedly said that “conditions are favourable for the monsoon’s advance over parts of the south Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea, and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands over the next 24 hours.”
On April 13, the IMD had made a forecast that “this year’s monsoon would bring India below-normal rainfall due to the impact of El Nino.”
Need to be mentioned here that, India reportedly experienced below-normal rainfall during the 2023 monsoon season despite the IMD’s forecast of normal rainfall.
It has also reportedly been stated that “the below-normal seasonal rainfall is most likely over many parts of the country except some areas over northeast, northwest and south-peninsular India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely.”
Since India is chiefly an agrarian economy with “51 per cent of farmed area, 40 per cent rain-fed and 47 per cent of Indian population dependent on agriculture for their livelihood”, below-normal rainfall could result in rural consumption crisis as well as trigger food inflation adding further woes when the country is already reeling under the threats of West Asia conflict-catapulted energy supply disrtuptions as well as the critical farm input called fertilizers.
