Industry Odisha Bureau, Oct 08: Global goods trade is now forecast to grow 4.6% this year, up from 3.6%. Demand for AI hardware is doing much of the lifting. Tariffs and wars are redirecting commerce rather than stopping it.
Trade was supposed to buckle under tariffs, wars and geopolitical rifts this year. Instead, global goods trade is proving surprisingly durable. Demand for artificial intelligence hardware is a major reason why.
The DHL Globalization Tracker now forecasts global merchandise trade growth of 4.6% in 2026. In January, it had predicted 3.6%. The 2027 forecast rose to 3.6%, from an earlier 2.7%. DHL Group, based in Bonn, produces the tracker with NYU’s Stern School of Business.
AI drives much of this momentum, according to the report. AI runs on servers, chips and data-centre equipment shipped across borders. AI-enabling goods accounted for 42% of merchandise trade growth in 2025, the report said. Their share of growth reached nearly 76% in the first quarter of 2026. Citing WTO and OECD data, these figures measure contribution to growth, not total trade.
Trump’s tariffs have not stopped trade, but they are changing its direction. Some companies are adding inventory to guard against sudden US policy changes. Others are switching suppliers while continuing to buy across borders.
US government data show the shift clearly. American imports from Taiwan rose 57% through August, compared with a year earlier. Imports from Vietnam climbed 44%, while those from South Korea rose 28%. Imports from China fell 16% over the same period.
NYU researchers Steven Altman and Caroline Bastian said Chinese exports outpaced the global average. Chinese sellers are finding buyers beyond the United States. That has raised concerns about unfair competition in places such as the European Union.
Almost three-quarters of global commerce still runs on WTO low-tariff terms. The US took 13% of global imports in 2025, the report noted. About half of American imports were exempt from Trump’s higher tariffs. WTO deputy director-general Jennifer Nordquist said trade is adjusting to a “new normal”.
Congestion at Chinese gateways has caused delays and lifted container rates. The Port of Los Angeles recorded its busiest June-to-August stretch ever. The Netherlands’ CPB bureau said world trade volumes hit a record in July. DP World’s Beat Simon said a vast physical supply chain underpins the digital boom. Shares of Maersk, the largest listed container carrier, reached a record this week.
Risks remain. The report said wars in Ukraine and Iran had severe but concentrated trade effects. It called government policy another negative force, though with limited global impact. Growth should average 3.45% a year through 2029, against 2.7% over the past decade. However, the report expects the pace to slow over the next three years.
The report also measures flows of capital, information and people. Its connectedness index hit a record 25.8% in 2025. The scale runs from zero, meaning no cross-border activity, to 100%, meaning no barriers. Gains in capital and information flows lifted the index. Yet the world remains far closer to separate national economies than full integration.
Globalisation, in short, is adapting rather than reversing. Tariffs and conflicts are redrawing trade routes and partnerships. AI demand, meanwhile, is creating fresh reasons for goods to cross borders.
