Industry Odisha Bureau, Oct 24: Wheat cultivation depends heavily on irrigation, so farmers are unlikely to cut acreage. Officials expect another strong harvest this rabi season despite a 13% monsoon shortfall.
India’s wheat acreage is likely to hold steady this rabi season despite weak monsoon rains. Officials say assured irrigation across major growing states will cushion the shortfall. That raises hopes of another bumper harvest in the crop year ending June 2027.
ML Jat, director general of the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), expects no significant fall. Jat told Mint that all major wheat-producing states are fully irrigated. Tubewells and canal networks supply water across these regions. Because wheat cultivation depends heavily on irrigation, farmers there face less rainfall risk, he said.
The agriculture ministry has set a 2026-27 production target of 121 million tonnes. Output touched a record 120.7 million tonnes the previous year. Wheat covered about 33.6 million hectares last season, according to ministry data. Acreage alone, however, does not decide output. Yields per hectare, shaped by temperature and water, matter just as much.
Wheat is sown in October and November and harvested in March and April. It is India’s main rabi, or winter, crop. Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar and Gujarat are the key producers.
The southwest monsoon, from June to September, ended 13% below normal. Northwestern India recorded a 6% deficit, while central India fell 3% short. Officials said October rains have aided soil moisture in the northwestern wheat belt.
Early October data, however, show a mixed picture. From October 1 to 14, the northwest received 12 mm against 13.1 mm normal, a 9% deficit. Central India got only 1.9 mm against a normal 37.3 mm, a 95% shortfall. Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan have received less rain. Canals and tubewells are expected to bridge the gap there.
ICAR deputy director general Devendra Kumar Yadava said wheat needs less water than paddy. This limits how uneven rainfall affects planting choices, he said. He expects 2026-27 acreage to stay broadly in line with last year. Ratan Tiwari, former director of ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat & Barley Research, agreed. He said soil moisture remains favourable in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana.
Jat also played down the risk from a possible stronger El Niño. El Niño is a Pacific warming pattern that can delay or weaken India’s monsoon. Officials do not expect it to cut sowing significantly. Higher temperatures later in the season could still affect yields, though.
Stocks offer a further cushion. Central pool wheat stocks stood at 47.44 million tonnes on September 16. That is nearly 20 million tonnes above the 27.58-million-tonne buffer norm. The surplus lets the government supply welfare schemes and intervene in markets. Healthy stocks alone cannot guarantee stable prices, as procurement costs also matter.
The Centre has raised wheat’s minimum support price (MSP) to ₹2,610 per quintal. The MSP is a guaranteed government purchase price for farmers. The new rate applies to the 2027-28 marketing season, running April to March. It is up ₹25 from ₹2,585 previously.
Steady supplies could keep prices in check and may aid exports, subject to policy. Final output, though, will depend on winter weather and actual yields.
