Industry Odisha Bureau, Oct 24: The IMD warns of extremely heavy rain in coastal Andhra Pradesh next week. A Bay of Bengal system may become a cyclone, though its landfall remains uncertain. Rain warnings also cover Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned of extremely heavy rain in coastal Andhra Pradesh. Coastal Andhra and Yanam could see isolated falls of 20 cm or more. The warning covers Monday and Tuesday, 26–27 October. The threat comes from a strengthening low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal.
On Saturday, 24 October, the system was a well-marked low over the east-central Bay. The IMD expected it to become a depression later that day. It could deepen into a deep depression on Sunday. By Monday morning, it may reach cyclonic storm strength over the west-central Bay. If it does, it would be named Arnab. It is forecast to move west-northwest. However, the timing and location of any landfall remain uncertain.
On Saturday morning, its centre lay about 775 km east-south-east of Visakhapatnam. It was roughly 663 km south-east of Brahmapur in Odisha. The US Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) separately placed it around 633 km from Visakhapatnam. Such distances do not determine where a storm will strike land. Steering winds and changing atmospheric conditions will shape its eventual track.
A second low over the south-east Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep is adding to the activity. Together, the two systems could keep much of southern India wet. Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal face very heavy falls of 11–20 cm on 24–26 October. Kerala and Mahe expect very heavy rain on 24–25 October. Heavy rain may follow there on 26 October. Lakshadweep and South Interior Karnataka also face heavy to very heavy spells. Coastal Andhra, Yanam and Telangana could get heavy rain again on 29 October. These are isolated forecasts, not uniform rainfall across entire states.
Waters beneath the system are reported to be around 30°C. Warm seas supply the heat and moisture that fuel storm clouds. Yet warm water alone does not guarantee rapid strengthening. Vertical wind shear, the change in wind with height, is crucial. Strong shear can tilt and weaken a storm; weak shear helps it organise. Good upper-level outflow also helps the storm vent air and sustain thunderstorms. A slow-moving system can spend longer over warm water and prolong rainfall. Waters nearer the Andhra coast are cooler, adding further uncertainty.
The report cites Google DeepMind projections showing a 91% chance of Category 4-equivalent intensity. That figure has not been independently verified. It is a model scenario, not an official IMD warning. The Saffir-Simpson scale measures sustained wind speed, not rainfall. Its categories also do not map neatly onto IMD classifications.
Heavy rain could threaten standing crops and delay harvests across affected districts. Ports, railways and highways could face interruptions if the storm intensifies. City drainage networks may struggle, causing localised flooding. Fishing activity often halts when official marine warnings are issued. These are potential risks, not reported losses.
The coming IMD bulletins will be key. They should clarify the storm’s strength, track and timing. Residents and businesses should rely on official updates rather than unverified projections.
