Industry Odisha Bureau, Oct 08: The World Meteorological Organization expects El Niño to peak in December. The episode should persist until February 2027. Crops, food prices and energy markets could face pressure worldwide.
El Niño may rank among the strongest episodes since 1950, a UN body said. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued the forecast in its latest climate bulletin, Reuters reported.
The agency expects the phenomenon to strengthen further and peak in December. It puts the chance of El Niño lasting through February 2027 at nearly 100%. These are forecasts, and the episode’s final strength remains uncertain.
Sea temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific could hit record levels. The WMO forecasts readings up to 3.7°C above normal from October to December. Celeste Saulo, the WMO’s secretary-general, said the ocean was the warmest ever measured. That leaves more heat available to fuel the event, she noted.
El Niño is the warm phase of the naturally occurring El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. Warmer surface water shifts where tropical storms and rain clouds form. That shift alters winds and pressure systems across the atmosphere. As a result, rainfall patterns can change thousands of kilometres away.
Some regions tend to receive heavy rain and flooding during El Niño years. Others face drought, heatwaves and failing harvests. Effects differ by region and season, so no two episodes are identical. Drought in Central America has reportedly already killed crops and livestock.
Such disruption can quickly spread into global food markets. Poor harvests often push up prices for staples traded internationally. Countries that rely heavily on food imports are especially exposed.
India is among the economies most sensitive to El Niño. Its monsoon supplies most of the country’s annual rainfall. Historically, El Niño years have often brought weaker monsoon rains. However, the link is not automatic, and regional outcomes vary widely.
A large share of Indian farmland still depends on rain rather than irrigation. Kharif crops such as rice and pulses are therefore vulnerable to deficits. Low rainfall can also deplete reservoirs and groundwater needed for later sowing. Rural incomes, farm jobs and household spending can weaken as a result.
Lower farm output can feed through to higher food prices. That squeezes household budgets and can dampen wider consumer demand. Rising food inflation may also complicate policy decisions for the central bank. The World Bank has flagged El Niño among risks to India’s growth outlook.
Energy markets face separate pressures during intense heat. Electricity demand usually climbs as households and businesses run cooling systems. Weak rainfall can also cut hydropower output and water supplies for industry. Volatile farm commodity prices can lift costs for food processors and exporters.
The previous El Niño, in 2023–24, added to exceptional global heat. Global temperatures in 2024 hit a record, about 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels. Scientists attribute such records to long-term warming as well as El Niño.
