Industry Odisha Bureau, Sep 28: India’s Russian crude imports fell to a five-month low of 1.74 million bpd. Total crude intake still rose to about 5.3 million bpd. Flexible refiners turned to Iraq and Saudi Arabia.*
Less Russia, more oil overall
September delivered a striking contrast in India’s crude oil imports. Russian barrels fell to about 1.74 million barrels per day. That was the lowest since April, according to ship-tracking data from Kpler.
Yet India’s overall intake climbed to roughly 5.3 million bpd. That was about 600,000 bpd more than August. It was also around 700,000 bpd higher than a year earlier.
Refiners did not buy less crude. They simply bought it from different places.
Middle East fills the gap
Iraq led the shift. Its supplies jumped to about 575,000 bpd from 163,000 bpd in August. Saudi Arabia raised shipments to 566,000 bpd, up from 347,000 bpd.
Not every Middle Eastern supplier followed. UAE volumes eased to 480,000 bpd from 546,000 bpd.
Overall, imports from the region reached an estimated 3 million bpd. That broadly restored them to pre-war levels. Kuwait also sent more oil.
Improving crude movements through the Strait of Hormuz helped. Ship-to-ship transfers and other logistical arrangements also supported the rebuild.
Refiners keep their options open
Kpler’s Sumit Ritolia says buying decisions still hinge on three factors. These are economics, availability and refinery compatibility.
African and Venezuelan barrels also added variety to the crude basket. The mix shows how quickly Indian refiners can switch suppliers.
Russian volumes retreat from July
Russian imports have now fallen for two straight months. They stood at 2.65 million bpd in July. August brought a drop to 2.02 million bpd.
September’s 1.74 million bpd still sits above April’s 1.58 million bpd. Ritolia said the decline does not signal a wholesale shift away from Russian crude. Russia remains a major part of India’s supply mix.
Geopolitics enters the calculation
Ritolia linked lower Russian flows to continued US pressure on buyers of Russian oil. That pressure, he said, encouraged refiners to keep sourcing flexible.
He also outlined a hypothetical scenario. If Washington announced unilateral punitive measures, refiners could turn more cautious. They could reduce rather than halt Russian purchases, he said. Enforcement, possible waivers and alternative supplies would guide those decisions.
India became a key buyer of Russian crude after Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022. Western sanctions and a price cap pushed Russian oil towards Asian markets.
Refinery runs keep imports high
Stronger domestic fuel demand explains the higher overall intake, Ritolia said. Refinery utilisation remains high. Export-oriented plants are also running at elevated rates. They are benefiting from strong product margins and tight global fuel markets.
A two-way trade emerges
Oil is now also flowing the other way. Russia began seaborne imports of Indian fuel products in July. Ukrainian attacks had disrupted Russian refineries and cut high-octane gasoline output.
The volumes remain small. They met about 4% of Russian demand for affected products in Q3, Kpler estimates. Ritolia described the trade as a temporary shift, not a structural change.
Flexibility, not abandonment
September’s data shows diversification rather than disengagement. Indian refiners changed suppliers while keeping crude intake high. Economics, availability and geopolitical risk will keep shaping those choices.
