Bhubaneswar, Sep 12: Gold prices today face pressure as crude oil fuels inflation fears. Rising Fed rate hike expectations weighed on COMEX gold. MCX gold stayed resilient on rupee weakness.
Crude oil surged past $104 a barrel this week. Escalating US-Iran tensions drove the rally. Higher energy costs reinforced US inflation concerns. Markets raised bets on another Fed rate hike. International gold slipped as Treasury yields climbed. COMEX gold ended near $4,408.90 an ounce. Yet MCX gold showed comparative resilience in India. A weaker rupee cushioned domestic bullion prices, keeping the India gold price outlook mixed.
Crude Oil Above $104 Pressures Gold Price Today
WTI crude gained 9.6% over five sessions. It rose nearly 16% over the past month. US-Iran tensions continued to escalate through the week. US diesel prices climbed above $6 a gallon. Higher energy costs strengthened inflation expectations further. This reinforced expectations around tighter Federal Reserve policy.
Inflation Raises US Fed Rate Hike Bets
Producer inflation accelerated to 5.4% annually. That exceeded the 5.3% forecast. Higher energy costs contributed significantly to the reading. Gold fell more than 1% after the data. Fed rate hike expectations for the September meeting rose. The Federal Reserve meets on 15-16 September 2026. Markets priced greater tightening risk following the report. Such Fed rate hike expectations remain market bets, not decisions.
Treasury Yields Weigh on COMEX Gold
The 10-year Treasury yield touched 4.975% intraday. That marked its highest level since October 2023. The two-year yield reached near 4.65%. Higher yields raise the opportunity cost of gold. COMEX gold ended the week around 1.5% lower. It touched $4,488.80 before pulling back sharply.
Weak Rupee Supports MCX Gold Price
The Indian rupee weakened around 1.1% this week. USD/INR closed near 95.54 per dollar. That marked its steepest weekly fall in four months. Elevated crude and rising bond yields pressured the rupee. RBI dollar-rupee swaps helped limit the depreciation. A weaker rupee raises the cost of imported bullion. This supported MCX gold despite COMEX weakness. MCX gold ended the week at ₹1,52,784 per 10 grams, holding just below its 20-day EMA.
Gold Price Outlook: Support and Resistance
COMEX gold’s weekly RSI eased to 50. Immediate resistance lies at $4,500-$4,530. Next resistance sits at $4,600-$4,630. Immediate support is at $4,340-$4,370, with next support at $4,200-$4,230. MCX gold’s weekly RSI stands at 53.93. Immediate resistance for MCX is ₹1,54,000-₹1,54,700. Immediate support lies at ₹1,50,000-₹1,50,700. Analysts say these levels are reference points, not guaranteed targets.
Festive Demand Could Support Gold Rate Today
Darshan Dessai of Aspect Bullion & Refinery expects a demand pickup. He linked this to the approaching festive and wedding season. Softer prices have renewed retail and jewellery interest. “We remain cautiously positive on the outlook,” he said. Bullion executives expect festive buying to offer further price support in coming weeks.
Outlook
Gold today sits between global and domestic forces. Crude oil fuelled inflation fears and Fed rate bets. Those bets lifted yields and pressured COMEX gold. A weakening rupee cushioned MCX gold in India. The near-term gold price outlook now hinges on festive demand and bond yields.
