Industry Odisha Bureau, Oct 30: India is on track to achieve it if the current pace continues, says the CEA. He wants industry support tied to competitiveness.
India could cross $1 trillion in exports in FY2026-27, says the Chief Economic Advisor. V Anantha Nageswaran tied the outlook to one condition: the current pace must continue. He cited trade figures of about $480 billion in the first six months. He spoke at the ISID-IDRA Fourth National Conference on October 29, ANI reported. This is a conditional outlook, not an official forecast or achieved milestone.
The maths leaves little room for error. Doubling $480 billion gives about $960 billion, short of the target. Crossing $1 trillion would need roughly $520 billion in the second half. That assumes both halves are measured on the same basis. The reported remarks did not specify whether it covers goods alone or services too. Services exports, led by software and business services, could prove decisive.
Nageswaran said hitting the target needs stronger domestic manufacturing and more competitive industries. He wants government support tied to clear results. Firms receiving help should either export more competitively or match import prices. “We have to insist on quid pro quo from the industry,” he said. His presentation backed time-bound, performance-linked support, withdrawn once domestic capacity turns competitive. He warned that protection without productivity gains could weaken industrial resilience. These are recommendations, not an approved government policy.
Recent growth numbers look strong. Real GDP grew 7.8% in the first quarter of FY2026-27. Manufacturing gross value added rose 9.2%, while gross fixed capital formation jumped 11.9%. That signals rising factory output and investment in new capacity. Yet manufacturing’s share of the economy has barely moved. It stood at 14.8% of GVA in 2025-26, against 14.7% in 2022-23. The sector is growing, but broadly in step with the wider economy.
Imports pose another challenge. Core merchandise imports grew 19.7% in April-September 2026, outpacing 16.2% growth in core exports. These are growth rates, not values, so they do not show the trade gap. Imports include inputs and machinery that help factories produce and export. Still, faster import growth raises questions about domestic production capacity.
Nageswaran said global markets no longer supply essential goods as reliably as before the pandemic. He said geopolitical tensions have made domestic capacity and access to critical resources more important. He urged buffers of essential commodities alongside a stronger ability to supply world markets. That is a call for resilience, not total self-sufficiency.
The $1 trillion mark is within reach only if exports keep their first-half momentum. Global demand, trade barriers and supply shocks could still change the outcome. Performance-linked support could encourage efficiency, but only if it is well designed and enforced. Ultimately, sustained export growth depends on turning investment and policy help into lasting competitiveness.
