Industry Odisha Bureau, Oct 25: A deepening Bay of Bengal system may cross the coast by October 28. Winds could reach 125 km/h, gusting to 140 km/h. Heavy rain threatens much of southern India.
A cyclone threat is building over the Bay of Bengal. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects it to become a very severe cyclonic storm. Its October 25 update places likely landfall between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, also called Vizag.
The storm could cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts on October 27–28. Landfall is expected between Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Sustained winds may reach 115–125 km/h, with gusts up to 140 km/h. These remain forecasts, as reported by The Hindu BusinessLine. Track, timing and strength could still shift.
On Sunday, the system strengthened from a depression into a deep depression. It lay about 420 km north-northwest of Sri Vijaya Puram in the Andamans. It was roughly 870 km east-southeast of Vizag. Bapatla lay about 1,130 km to its west.
The IMD expects it to become a cyclonic storm first. It should then turn west-northwest and reach severe cyclonic storm strength by Tuesday morning. A final north-westward turn could bring very severe intensity near the coast.
Slow movement over warm water gives the storm more time to strengthen. Sea-surface temperatures along the path are hovering near 30°C. Warm oceans supply heat and moisture that fuel deep storm clouds. The US Joint Typhoon Warning Center reportedly sees conditions favouring rapid intensification. Still, warm water alone does not guarantee strengthening. Vertical wind shear and deeper ocean heat also shape a cyclone’s growth.
Rainfall is expected well beyond the landfall zone. Isolated extremely heavy falls, above 20 cm, are forecast for Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal. Kerala and Mahe face a similar risk. Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam could see such downpours on Tuesday and Wednesday. Telangana may follow on Wednesday. Heavy falls of 7–11 cm are likely in parts of South Interior Karnataka. Rayalaseema and Coastal Karnataka may also see heavy rain.
Such rain could strain drainage, standing crops, rural roads and local transport.
A moisture-laden trough stretches across north coastal Tamil Nadu. It links to a low-pressure area over the south-east Arabian Sea. This setup may add moisture and enhance rainfall over the south. Strong surface winds may sweep interior Karnataka, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Rayalaseema.
At sea, the west-central Bay could turn dangerous. Rough to very rough seas, with waves of 13–20 feet, are forecast from Sunday evening. Seas may turn high, with 20–30-foot waves, from Monday. By Wednesday, phenomenal seas with waves above 46 feet are possible. These are wave heights, not storm-surge levels. The IMD has warned of dangerous sailing and fishing conditions.
AI models paint a more intense picture. Google DeepMind’s model reportedly gives a 97% chance of extremely severe intensity. It projects peak sustained winds near 200 km/h before landfall. This is a model estimate, not an official IMD forecast.
The IMD remains the authority for cyclone warnings in India. Coastal communities and fishers should follow its bulletins closely. The coming days will decide the storm’s final track and strength.
