Industry Odisha Bureau, Sep 30: Persian Gulf crude exports have recovered to roughly last year’s average, Goldman Sachs estimates. Oil prices slipped, with Brent and WTI both lower. Saudi flows strengthened, but shipping and infrastructure risks persist.
The Middle East remains a source of serious geopolitical risk for oil markets. Yet more physical crude is now reaching buyers from the region. Goldman Sachs estimates Persian Gulf oil exports recovered to 23.3 million barrels a day. That recovery helped oil prices slip for a second straight session on Wednesday. The market now weighs returning barrels against risks that have not gone away.
Gulf flows rebuild
Goldman’s estimate covers the week through September 29. It is roughly in line with the region’s 2025 average. Higher exports through the Strait of Hormuz supported the rebound. Ship-to-ship transfers, where crude moves directly between tankers, also helped. The figure shows exports recovering, not a permanent return to normal.
Saudi Arabia restores export routes
Saudi Arabia, a key Gulf exporter, is also shipping more crude. Its crude exports reached 5.8 million barrels a day in September, ANZ Research said. That was their highest level since February. These are export figures, which differ from production.
Flows through the kingdom’s East-West pipeline are recovering faster than expected. The pipeline had faced earlier disruptions. Saudi Arabia has also resumed loading vessels at the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Together, these routes strengthen the kingdom’s ability to move crude to market.
Prices respond to physical supply
December Brent crude futures fell 0.9% to $95.31 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate futures dropped 0.6% to $86.76. Both contracts had also fallen on Tuesday. Signs of recovering Middle East exports eased fears of disrupted regional supply. The move was modest, however, and prices remain elevated.
Shipping risks have not disappeared
The export recovery has not removed threats facing energy shipping. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militia have stepped up attacks in the Red Sea. They have also expanded along Yemen’s coast, The Wall Street Journal reported. The group has asserted control over the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the report said.
Bab al-Mandeb is an important energy-shipping corridor linking the Red Sea to wider routes. It also offers an alternative path around the Strait of Hormuz. The two chokepoints are distinct, and disruption at one does not close the other.
Inventories keep the market sensitive
Goldman says prices remain elevated for a reason. Escalation could threaten longer-term production in the region, its analysts said. They also pointed to record-low global oil inventories. Thin stockpiles leave less cushion if supply is interrupted. That keeps the market sensitive to fresh disruption.
Emergency barrels add another buffer
The US Energy Department is seeking bids to exchange up to 40 million barrels. The crude would come from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It forms part of a planned 172-million-barrel US contribution. That contribution belongs to a 400-million-barrel release coordinated among IEA member countries. Deliveries under the latest awards are scheduled for November and December. The emergency barrels will therefore arrive gradually, not all at once.
Flows versus fear
The oil market is reading two signals at once. Gulf crude is moving more freely, and Saudi routes are reopening. That has eased immediate supply concerns and let prices slip. Yet shipping corridors and production infrastructure remain exposed to escalation. Today’s barrels are flowing, but tomorrow’s remain at risk.
