Industry Odisha Bureau, Oct 29: India’s stock market looks set for a flat to marginally positive start on Thursday. GIFT Nifty futures stood at 22,708 at 7:35 a.m. IST. The Nifty 50 closed at 22,698.85 on Wednesday. That gap of about nine points signals caution rather than fresh buying conviction. Benchmarks have fallen in six of the last seven sessions.
The overnight trigger came from Washington. The US Federal Reserve chose to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday, as expected. The central bank said inflation remains elevated and it wants more data. Reuters reported any change in borrowing costs is unlikely before next week’s midterm elections. A pause offers stability, but not the relief of a rate cut.
Higher US rates keep Treasuries and the dollar attractive to global investors. Emerging markets compete directly with these safer, higher-yielding US assets. That reduces the appeal of emerging-market shares, including India’s. A stronger dollar also erodes foreign investors’ returns when converted from rupees. Rate-sensitive sectors such as banks, property and autos often feel this pressure first.
Foreign flows show a mixed picture. Foreign portfolio investors bought ₹8.72 billion ($91.58 million) of Indian shares, provisional data showed. It was their second straight session of net buying. Yet they have sold a net $3.74 billion of shares so far this month. Two days of buying hardly reverses that broader outflow. Sustained inflows would need clearer signals on US rates and oil.
Crude oil remains the bigger worry. Brent futures hovered near $115 a barrel on Middle East supply risks. India imports most of its oil, so high prices widen the import bill. They can also pressure the current account and weaken the rupee. A weaker rupee would raise costs for import-dependent manufacturers. Costlier fuel feeds inflation, limiting room for the Reserve Bank of India to ease policy. Oil-linked firms such as paint makers and airlines are typically more exposed.
Quarterly results offer stock-specific cues rather than a uniform trend. Vedanta’s September-quarter net profit more than doubled on higher volumes and firm metal prices. Hero MotoCorp’s profit missed estimates as rising costs offset resilient two-wheeler demand. United Spirits reported a 2% profit decline amid weak sales of cheaper brands. Regulatory changes also weighed on the liquor maker’s numbers. PNB Housing Finance posted a 6% profit rise on healthy disbursements and loan growth. Meesho narrowed its quarterly loss as orders and seller advertising income grew. These results show conditions vary widely across sectors.
Investors face competing forces in the near term. A steady Fed and selective foreign buying offer some support. Strong company results may also lift individual counters. But elevated crude prices and persistent outflows continue to cap risk appetite. Markets will also watch upcoming US inflation data closely. Until oil cools or foreign selling eases, gains may stay fragile.
