Industry Odisha Bureau,Sep 11: Houthi advances near Bab el-Mandeb threaten Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea workaround for Hormuz, adding fresh pressure to global oil prices and shipping routes.
The Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained. That disruption pushed Gulf producers towards alternative export routes. Saudi Arabia leaned heavily on its Red Sea infrastructure. Now Houthi advances near Bab el-Mandeb threaten that workaround. The oil market faces a two-chokepoint problem, not a single crisis.
Hormuz Makes Bab el-Mandeb More Important
Hormuz carried 21.6 million barrels per day in late 2025, per the EIA. By mid-2026, that fell to 4.9 million bpd. Saudi Arabia responded using its East-West pipeline. Crude moves overland to Yanbu, avoiding Hormuz entirely. Bab el-Mandeb flows rose from 5.4 million to 8.1 million bpd over the same period, EIA data show.
Houthi Advance Raises Red Sea Shipping Risk
Houthi forces reportedly seized Mocha, then Perim Island. Reuters said Dhubab, facing Perim, was also captured. Perim sits at Bab el-Mandeb’s mouth. This does not mean the strait is closed. Ships can still physically pass through. But commercial confidence, not physical access, is the real question.
Saudi Arabia’s Hormuz Workaround Faces Pressure
Yanbu loadings rose to roughly 3.7 million bpd in early September. That is up from about 3.2 million bpd in August, per Vortexa data cited by Reuters. Suez and SUMED together carried about 5.8 million bpd. These routes offer flexibility but face real capacity limits.
Shipping Can Retreat Without a Blockade
Shipowners weigh war-risk premiums against safer alternatives. Missile and drone threats can trigger rerouting decisions. Earlier Houthi attacks cut Bab el-Mandeb traffic by roughly 60%, AP reported, citing Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Tankers could instead round the Cape of Good Hope, lengthening voyages and tying up vessel capacity.
Oil And Diesel Markets Feel Multiple Disruptions
Brent settled at $107.63 on Thursday, its highest since May. WTI closed at $102.48. Prices eased Friday on talk of Hormuz negotiations, with Brent near $104. US diesel crossed $6 a gallon. Russian refinery disruption from Ukrainian attacks compounds the refined-products squeeze. Commerzbank raised its year-end Brent forecast to $85. Goldman Sachs projected crude could reach $120, though these remain forecasts, not certainties.
Two Chokepoints Test Global Oil Flexibility
Saudi crude supply fell roughly 2.3 million bpd in August, the IEA said, its lowest level in decades. The IEA also projected 2026 global supply could fall 5.7 million bpd. Inventories dropped by 3.1 million bpd in August. Weakening demand offers some cushion against these pressures.
Closing
Hormuz’s disruption forced reliance on Red Sea alternatives. Bab el-Mandeb now carries part of that burden. Houthi advances threaten the corridor’s commercial viability, not its physical access. The real risk is a prolonged squeeze across both waterways, testing the oil system’s remaining flexibility.
