The ongoing West Asia crisis has raised concerns over several commodities including fertilisers, triggering fears of food security. With several urea companies in India either shutting down their plants or moving up annual maintenance after Qatari supplies of liquefied natural gas, a key feedstock, were suspended, speculations are rife on India facing shortages of fertilisers, a major backbone of the country’s agricultural infrastructure.
Fertilisers are among the most globally traded commodities. Since their production is heavily dependent on natural gas, phosphate rock, and potash—resources concentrated in a handful of countries, a disruption of these supply lines due to the ongoing war have exposed countries like India, which is one of the largest consumers of fertilisers, relying significantly on imports.
Fertilizers comprise three primary nutrients: nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K). Every bag of fertilizer — urea, DAP, MOP, those 10-26-26 NPK blends — is combination of these three.
Each nutrient has a completely different supply chain and different import countries. War has blocked these chains, which in turn are likely to spill over on our farms.
Experts fear that if the war prolongs, the impact on India’s kharif season could be damaging.
For states like Odisha, which is highly dependent on agriculture, shortages of fertilisers could be threatening the livelihood of majority of farmers.
Since the state’s agricultural economy relies heavily in the kharif season (nearly 70–75% of total cultivated area is under kharif crops), with paddy accounting for over 80% of kharif cropped area, which is nutrient-sensitive, especially in medium- to high-yield varieties, fertilisers become an intrinsic part of the cropping.
The ongoing war is likely to hit the state severely, which is already facing shortages of fertilisers due to distribution and governance issues. It may be noted that last year the farmers led by Opposition parties staged protest against the government alleging shortage of fertilisers in the Kharif season. Despite clarification by the state government that the central govt had allocated 9.55 lakh metric tonnes of fertiliser for Odisha (almost full required quantity) by September 30, 2025, the state faced local shortages, black marketing, hoarding and delayed access. Therefore, global conflict will add to the woes of the state government.
How it will affect the state economy
Pressure on price: With Strait of Hormuz, the key channel through which most of our commodities pass already blocked, the cost of producing and transporting fertilisers will automatically go up, which in turn will trickle down to farmers. Even if the government tries to keep the prices stable through subsidies, it would be difficult to fully control the damage. This may lead to squeezing supply thereby limiting its distribution. This will make the conditions of farmers precarious as they may get fertilisers in smaller quantities. It could also lead to black marketing.
Uncertainty: It will also create an atmosphere of uncertainty. With uncertain timeline of supply chain, there is a likelihood that fertilisers may not reach farmers at the right time or in the required quantity. As kharif crops depend on precise timing, this uncertainty may compel farmers to either delay application, use less than needed, or depend on unreliable local markets. It will ultimately affect crop growth, yields and income stability.
Imbalanced fertiliser use: More importantly, shortages could force planters to substitute DAP (Diammonium phosphate), key for Kharif crops with Urea, which is cheaper. While this may help crops look greener in the short term, it does not ensure proper root growth or grain development. Over time, it will not only decrease farm output but will also increase dependence on even more fertiliser, trapping farmers in a cycle of low efficiency and rising costs.
These conditions will slow down the state economy. Since agriculture is the main source of income for a large share of rural households, decline in farm output will spill on other sectors affecting local markets, small businesses, transport and labour demand.
Way Forward
As shortage of fertilisers for the state is both global and domestic, Odisha government must build resilience against recurring shocks.
The state must fix the last-mile delivery gap. Digital tracking of fertiliser movement—from warehouses to retail points can go a long way in reducing leakages, hoarding, and artificial scarcity.
Better pre-season planning is yet another way to overcome the challenges. Decentralised stocking of fertilisers before the kharif season, especially in remote and tribal districts, can prevent panic shortages during peak demand.
Diversification beyond paddy and kharif should be encouraged. Apart from expanding irrigation, rabi cropping should be encouraged while promoting millets and pulses. It would reduce pressure on a single crop cycle.
Lastly, to avoid uncertain situations like war and supply chain disruption, New Delhi should initiate substitute projects that could lessen our dependency on other countries for fertilisers. We must go back to our golden old days and rely on organic farming.
Also Read :- Should India Deem ‘Hormuz Heat’ Blessing In Disguise, Evolve Ways & Means For Energy Self-Reliance?
