Industry Odisha Bureau, Oct 05: Domestic flights are down 5% this quarter, but seats have dipped only 1.2%. Festive travel demand remains strong. With jet fuel costlier, domestic airfares jump up to 68% on some routes.
India’s festive travel season comes with an unusual capacity picture. Airlines are flying fewer domestic flights, but not many fewer seats.
Scheduled domestic flights for October–December are down 5% year-on-year, OAG data show. Seat capacity has slipped just 1.2%. Larger aircraft explain the gap. Each flight now carries more seats on average.
Fewer departures, firm demand and costlier fuel are together lifting fares.
Route fares diverge sharply
On some routes, the domestic airfare jump is steep. Average one-way fares between September 1 and November 10 rose 68% on Delhi-Hyderabad. Mumbai-Kolkata fares climbed 51%, and Delhi-Goa 39%. Mumbai-Bengaluru fares rose 37%.
These are selected routes, not a nationwide average.
The frequency squeeze
The key distinction is between flights and seats. Total seats show how many people can fly. Frequency shows how many departure times travellers can choose from.
When frequencies fall, choice narrows, especially on peak dates. Where demand stays strong, fewer departures can push fares up faster.
This is not a broad seat shortage. OAG chief analyst John Grant expects December 7 to be the quarter’s busiest day. It has 589,386 seats scheduled, below last year’s peak of 603,634.
Capacity moves between routes
Airlines are shifting capacity rather than simply cutting it. Mumbai-Jamnagar capacity has more than tripled to 102,520 seats from 32,452. Delhi-Navi Mumbai has jumped to 142,600 seats from 8,158. That reflects the new Navi Mumbai airport ramping up operations.
Other routes have lost ground. Ahmedabad-Kolkata capacity is down 20.9%. Hyderabad-Jaipur capacity has fallen 33.1%.
Fuel raises the cost floor
Fuel adds another layer of pressure. Domestic aviation turbine fuel prices rose about ₹16 per litre from October 1. That took prices to about ₹137 per litre, from ₹121. September saw a ₹6.28 rise, and August a ₹5 increase.
Fuel makes up 30–40% of airline operating expenses, according to ICRA. Domestic ATF was already about 20% costlier year-on-year in August, it said. Oil marketing companies had raised prices by ₹5,000 per kilolitre.
Airlines also carry significant dollar costs, including aircraft leases and maintenance. That leaves them exposed to both fuel prices and the rupee.
Festive demand stays firm
Aloke Bajpai, co-founder and group co-CEO of ixigo, says Goa bookings are up 10%. Leh, Dehradun and Amritsar are also seeing strong festive growth, he says. Higher ATF prices could push domestic fares up around peak dates, he adds.
Yatra puts domestic fares 30–40% above last year. Its domestic bookings and searches have stayed broadly steady. Demand is strong on Delhi-Mumbai, Delhi-Bengaluru and Mumbai-Bengaluru routes. Metro links to Patna and Kochi are also busy.
Yatra expects high-demand fares to rise another 15–20% closer to departure. The increase may be sharper where capacity is constrained, it says.
Overseas options widen
International schedules are moving the other way. OAG data show international flights up 3% and seats up 2%. Planned capacity to Saudi Arabia is up 22%, and to Canada 27%. Capacity to China has quadrupled, while Thailand’s is down 8%.
Bajpai says easier visa access and better connectivity are lifting international travel. Ixigo’s bookings to Hanoi have more than doubled. Bali is up 89%, Colombo 76% and Bangkok 74%. Abu Dhabi rose 38% and Singapore 12%.
Yatra paints a more mixed picture. Its overall international searches and bookings have softened. Yet Southeast Asia and West Asia remain in strong demand. International fares are 30–50% higher, Yatra says.
More seats, less choice
Bigger planes have kept domestic seat numbers broadly intact. But travellers are getting fewer departures to choose from. On busy festive dates, that matters for price. Costlier fuel adds to the pressure. For some travellers, a wider overseas network now offers an alternative.
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