Industry Odisha Bureau, Sep 14: New tuberculosis vaccines expected from 2029 could transform disease prevention. But affordable, predictable supply will determine their real-world impact, Gavi warns.
New tuberculosis vaccines could avert up to 7.3 million deaths by 2050. Gavi says this depends on securing sufficient vaccine supply.
The vaccines are expected to become available from around 2029. But affordable and predictable access remains uncertain, the global vaccine alliance warned.
New TB vaccines could reshape tuberculosis prevention
Tuberculosis remains the world’s leading infectious killer. It caused an estimated 1.23 million deaths in 2024, according to WHO.
Currently, BCG is the only licensed TB vaccine. It is more than 100 years old.
BCG protects infants and young children against severe TB. However, its protection weakens over time.
New candidate vaccines aim to improve protection among adolescents and adults. This could address a long-standing gap in prevention.
Gavi projects millions of deaths could be prevented
Gavi’s modelling suggests candidate vaccines could avert up to 7.3 million deaths. This projection covers the period from 2030 through 2050.
The estimate remains conditional on several factors. These include regulatory approval, manufacturing capacity and affordability.
Country-level adoption and distribution will also matter. Gavi has not claimed these outcomes are guaranteed.
Potential $135 billion economic benefit
Gavi’s analysis suggests new vaccines could unlock significant economic value. It estimates up to $135 billion in benefits by mid-century.
This figure applies to low- and middle-income countries. TB creates economic costs through illness, treatment and lost productivity. Gavi has not detailed how this estimate breaks down.
Vaccine supply could become the biggest challenge
Supply remains a critical risk to the rollout. Demand uncertainty could discourage manufacturers from expanding production capacity.
Limited demand visibility affects investment decisions. This, in turn, could constrain future vaccine availability.
Inadequate global or domestic financing poses another risk. It could limit uptake even where vaccines are approved.
Gavi’s role in vaccine access
Gavi works with governments and donors to expand vaccine access. It is preparing for timely access once vaccines are licensed.
The organisation aims to encourage competitive, geographically diverse manufacturing. It also wants to support affordable and predictable supply.
Sania Nishtar, who leads Gavi, described the vaccines as a potential major immunisation tool. She stressed their impact depends on sufficient and affordable supply reaching high-burden countries.
The TB vaccine pipeline could mark an important step forward. But successful approval alone will not guarantee population-level impact.
Manufacturing capacity, financing and equitable access will shape outcomes. These factors will determine how widely new vaccines actually reach patients.
